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BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 16

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

...BONNIE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD

THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA

PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH

OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF DESTIN WESTWARD TO THE

ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT

260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS

EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA

THURSDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT

BONNIE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND BONNIE MAY

BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO

THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS

1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

STORM SURGE FLOODING COULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

IN APALACHEE BAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED

HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH BONNIE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER

THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N... 88.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN