What about Charley? Ask Bonnie?
"Nobody predicted [Hurricane Charley] would go from Category 2 to Category
4 in
four
hours"
In mid-August, 2004, the third hurricane of the season, Charley, caught
forecasters off-guard. Charley are a low-category hurricane when suddenly
it escalated in strength off the west coast of Florida with far greater damage
because people had not prepared for a Category 4 hurricane: "Because Charley
was expected to hit land closer to Tampa, many residents around Punta Gorda,
Fla., were caught unprepared, prompting criticism from some
local
officials."
A CO2 blastoma can explain Charley's sudden shift if one looks at a similar,
but opposite sudden shift in Bonnie which traversed the same GOM oil
fields/CO blastoma 24-hours earlier. The below images show Bonnie approaching
Florida on August 11 and developing CO2 blastoma byte. The second
image is a similar view which includes Charley. Both picture of Bonnie show
CO2 cloaking of the leading edge (between 1 o'clock and 3 o'clock) crossing
the GOM CO2 blastoma then extent. In both images of Bonnie, one can see the
continuation of the outer bands of Bonnie even though they have become less
visible as the moisture binds with the CO2 of the blastoma.
August 11@ 11am (click for enlargement)
|
Bonnie: August 11 - 12
-
August 11@13:00:
...BONNIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND GETTING
STRONGER...
[but a few hours later]
-
August 11@23:00:
Bonnie suddenly
weakens:
"BONNIE HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL
CHANGES DURING THE PAST 6-9 HR.
THE TIGHT INNER CORE THAT HAD BEEN PRESENT
FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS COLLAPSED DURING THE AFTERNOON" (The
donut bite is noted by Hurricane Center but described as "THE
CYCLONE HAS JUST GENERATED A BURST OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER")
-
August 12@01:00:
BONNIE HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
IF THIS PERSISTS THE HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING LATER
-
August 12@04:00:
BONNIE REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES
ARE DISCONTINUED
Charley, August 13 summary: (Full
Table of Advisories)
Time/
Category/Speed |
Moving/
Pressure |
Advisory |
9am
2w/110mph |
N@18mph
970mm |
HURRICANE CHARLEY ON TRACK |
11am
2 w/110mph |
N@18mph
965mm |
Some Strengthening possible |
1pm
3 w/125mph |
NNE@20mph
964mm |
Charley Strengthening |
2pm
4 w/145mph |
NNE@20mph
954mm |
Special Advisory; Charley Strengthens to
Category 4 |
|
Monday night quarter-backing by
forecasters
discussed the need to improve their computer models to avoid being blind-sided
by another Charley. Adding the CO2 blastoma to the computer models may be
the answer.
Quality Control Tools for Higher
iCube ...
Frog Leaping.
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