1998+ U.S. Southeast/East Coast Drought
| The Southeastern part of the U.S. is upwind from the Gulf of Mexico where
the number of deep water oil wells is increasing almost
50% in one year. Primary wind patterns
are the Westerly Trade Winds. The
Easterly Trade Winds come diagonally off the equator. The wind shift in the
Gulf is why hurricanes come from the coast of Africa and eventually
reverse course to the east once they enter the lattitudes
of the the Westerlies. This explains the U-turns of hurricanes
in the Gulf of Mexico (Map 2). With or without hurricanes to show
the U-turns of winds over the Gulf of Mexico, the droughts of
Southeastern United States show the drought impact from the oil wells
in the Gulf.
A good example of the wind reversal at this latitude was the first
Hurricane of 2001: Allison. Allison came ashore in a northwesterly direction
onto Texas before reversing direction and heading northeast dumping deluges
on each state in its path. As explained in
Torrential
Downpours, the CO2 responsible for the droughts soaks up the water in
its path until reaches a "discharge" capacity/capacitance and then all hell
breaks lose. More water is present than would otherwise be present.
In the middle map, #2, pay particular attention to the Red C in the middle:
Over the Gulf offshore wells onto the US Southeast. |
| 1. Oil Lease Areas in Gulf of Mexico |
2. Hurricane Tracks (1985) |
3. Year 2000 Southeast Drought |
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For actual satellite images of wind and cloud movement over hours or
days
click Prevailing Winds.
Description of Drought
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"Florida Drought Scares Officials"
article
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"EPD Says Drought [4th year] May Continue in Southwest Georgia
article.
Upwind Oil Field Development:
The following chart from the Dept of Interior,
Minerals Management Service of Gulf Of Mexico (GOM) Offshore Continental
Shelf (OCS) production shows graphically the rise in GOM oil
production.
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"Cheerleader" summaries form The Minerals Management Service of the U.S.
Department of
Interior
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2000-12-27: "Rigs Drilling in
Deepwater Gulf Reaches Record High" (40)
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2001-04-19: "Number of Rigs Drilling
In Deepwater Gulf Reaches Record High of 42"
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2001-05-23: "Two Records Are
Set for Deepwater Gulf of Mexico" 45 wells and 9,743 feet
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2001-07-02: "The Bush
administration will lease 1.47 million acres of the eastern Gulf of Mexico
to oil companies."
These numbers mean more than they seem for a simple reason: "The average
oil well in the Gulf of Mexico flows 30,000 barrels of oil
daily--100 times the rate of flow
of an onshore U.S. well.[writer's emphasis]. New, extremely
deep water wells will flow at much greater rates."
Plunket
So, let's restate the above numbers
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2000-12-27: "Rigs Drilling in
Deepwater Gulf Reaches Record High" (4000)
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2001-04-19: "Number of Rigs Drilling
In Deepwater Gulf Reaches Record High of 4200"
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2001-05-23: "Two Records Are
Set for Deepwater Gulf of Mexico" 4500 wells and 9,743 feet
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Gulf of Mexico deepwater oil production surging (October,1999
article)
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"Once considered a distant frontier by U.S. exploration and production companies,
the deepwater sector of the Gulf of Mexico has become the industry's most
active bit of real estate, thanks to improving technology."
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"Production in the region has increased 279 % in the past five years, and
47% between 1997 and 1998."
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"This level of deepwater oil and gas activity illustrates the tremendous
level of industry interest in the deepwater portion of the Gulf of Mexico.
Last year began with 26 rigs working in deepwater, but that number continued
to rise. By the end of the year, there were a record 40 rigs drilling in
the deep waters of the Gulf. Now, just four months into 2001, a new record
has been set ... Production from these deepwater wells has now surpassed
production in shallow water, despite the fact that only four percent of all
producing fields in the Gulf of Mexico are in deepwater."
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"Deepwater: A New Frontier for Resource Management",
MMS 2000-05-18
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Today there are approximately 7600 active leases in the Gulf of Mexico, 48
percent of which are in deepwater. Contrast this to 5600 active leases in
1992, only 27 percent of which were in deep water regions. By the end of
1999, there were 30 producing fields, up 30 percent in 12 months.
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For the first time in history, the amount of oil production in the Gulf of
Mexico from deepwater rose above 50 percent of the total.
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In 1990 about four percent of the oil and less than one percent of the natural
gas produced on the Gulf’s outer continental shelf was from deepwater.
By the end of 1999, more than 50 percent of the Gulf’s oil production
and 20 percent of its natural gas was from that area. This represents a 2,800
percent increase in oil produced from those depths during the 1990’s
and a 3,500 percent increase in natural gas production from deepwater.
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Save the whales?
Hell! Save me! Concern is expressed about deep-water rigs affecting
whales.
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The Shit-Kicker: Minerals Management Service.
| Map 1: Old and New Fields: Western and Central Gulf of Mexico |
Map 2: New leases in Eastern Gulf of Mexico |
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Old shallow wells versus new deepwater well:
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Close-to-shore wells allowed easy commercial transportation of
natural gas.
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Distant deepwater wells have transportation problems for both oil
and gas according to the
Mineral Management
Service.
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For oil, "shuttle tankers" would be needed to transport
oil to shore.
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"Major deepwater gas discoveries that occur more than 70 miles from
infrastructure could remain undeveloped because of the technical and economic
challenges."--
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The July 2001 Lease sale by the Bush (below right)
involves deepwater wells more than twice the distance that
Mineral Management Service states as a technically feasible.
Oil will be shuttled. Gas will be flared.
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C02 plumes from flared gas travel for
1000's of miles,
acting like a vacuum sucking up water from the land and
air over which they travel.
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Deepwater wells produce oil and gas produce at a
rate 100
times the average oil well.
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Publicly, the Mineral Management Service says it is
against flaring but
policies and practices allow unrestricted
flaring, especially if the associated gas is economically
uncommercial--too far from shore to underwrite
the cost of a pipeline.
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The Florida's environmentalists, legislators, and
tourists have a false victory in
thinking "out-of-sight, out-of-mind." With a more generic
molecule than DDT, "Silent Springs" and "Silent Cash drawers" will
on people's minds.
| Current offshore oil activity in the Gulf of Mexico. |
Bush Administration's July 2, 2001, expansion of gulf oil fields |
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Terminating Factor:
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None in sight:
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Existing, older fields are being expanded with new, deeper water wells out
in the Gulf--Map 1 above.
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More drilling and platforms expected--see below deep water leases in eastern
Gulf of Mexico, Map 2 above.
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"The Gulf of Mexico already produces about one-fifth of all the oil and
one-fourth of all the natural gas produced in the U.S. Those ratios
will rise sharply as new, deep water wells are brought on
line."[writer's emphasis]
Plunket
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Minerals Management Service is to Oil Companies
what universities are to professional sports: "Flaring oilfield
gas for up to 1 year may be permitted for economic reasons,with justification,
if there is an approved plan of action to eliminate the flare."
OTC8768
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Bush Administration wants to increase drilling--Both Bush, Cheney and
other administration members have a financial stake in Gulf of
Mexico oil. (Florida is getting payback for how it
stole the election for the Governor's
brother. If we could just funnel the drought and fires
to
SCOTUS
.)
For the US to maintain its current level of oil production, 50% of which
comes from the Gulf of Mexico, the people of Florida, Georgia, Alabama
and South Carolina must be willing to suffer a declining standard of living
so that the rest of the US can have our oil-dependent lifestyles
... for a little while longer.
As the East African drought disappeared for the duration of the
OPEC
embargo in the early 1970's, so would the East Coast drought
disappear if they shut off the GOM wells. Choice is simple: Water or
Death.
Additional understanding of the GOM wells and CO2 can be read at the webpage
on changes in Hurricane behavior
from global CO2 and local CO2
bubbles(blastomas).
Additional Information:
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010705 "Florida's Oil
Revolt"
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010718 "Water
wars brew in Southeast"
No one expected it to become such a critical resource so fast in a region
long thought to have an inexhaustible supply.
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010722 "Wildfire in northwest
Florida grows again"
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010827 "Tampa's
dry August may set a record"
Florida's drought, heading into its fourth year, is on course to produce
one of the driest Augusts on record in the Tampa region.
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011120 "Thirty-six rainless
days pour on the problems"
Richmond has apparently set a record for the longest run of rainless days
in more than a century of official weather history.
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011129 "Warm weather chills
holiday spirit"
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020120 "Drought on East Coast
Raises Worries of Water Rationing"
Water experts who have pored over records for precedents for the current
situation are using words like "wild" and "scary."
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020228 "Arid, Arid,
All Around, And Nature's Out of Sync"
It may still be winter and the start of nature's high water demand still
weeks away, but the drought that has now marched locally through three seasons
is posting ever more dire warnings throughout the mid-Atlantic ecosystem.
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020315 "Drought
Leaves Maine Stoic but Struggling"
They flush their toilets once a day. Unable to use washing machines in
their homes for the past five months, they wait in long lines at coin-operated
laundries. For supper, they usually eat sandwiches off paper plates. If they
want a proper meal — the kind that requires washing a lot of dishes
— they drive to a restaurant.
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020408 "Carbon dioxide
emissions up. Report: Va. had 9th highest rise"
Carbon dioxide emissions from old, coal-burning power plants in Virginia
increased by more than a third from 1995 to 2000, according to a report by
clean-air groups.
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020416 "In
Central Maryland, It's Drill vs. Drought"
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030000 Where did it go? Injection? Deliveries? Pressure drops? Global
oscillation?
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